Elections in Iran – Part V: The Waning of the Protest Movement

Elections in Iran – Part V: The Waning of the Protest Movement  By: A. Savyon* Iran|#529| June 29, 2009

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Two weeks after the elections, it seems that the Iranian regime has managed to suppress the protest movement. This report examines the reasons for the waning of this movement. 1. Violence by the Regime In attempt to quell the protests, which were mostly peaceful, the Iranian regime has employed brutal violence. IRGC and Basij units, some of them in plainclothes, used both cold weapons (clubs and knives) and live fire against the protestors. In addition to employing violence against the demonstrators in the streets, the security forces also raided student dorms, especially in Tehran; arrested protesters, political activists, journalists and intellectuals; and persecuted owners of homes from which the call of "Allah Akbar" was heard in the nights. The heads of the regime made threats against anyone who participated in the demonstrations, blocked websites and media outlets supportive of the protest movement, and waged a media campaign against this movement by describing the protestors and their leaders as hostile elements collaborating with Iran's enemies. Permits for political and party activities were revoked, and a special court was establish to prosecute the protestors. 2. Unlike Some of the Demonstrators, the Protest Movement Leaders Never Advocated a Regime Change in Iran; Their Campaign Is Part of a Struggle between Two Streamswithin the Regime The leaders of the protest movement, Mir Hossein Mousavi, Mehdi Karroubi and Mohammad Khatami, called on the demonstrators to keep their protests peaceful, and stated that they would negotiate with the regime to attain their goals, which are the holding of a new election or the establishment of a committee of ayatollahs, acceptable to all sides, to examine the election results. Unlike some of the protestors, these leaders are not interested in a change of regime in Iran, and have never called to topple Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei.(1)       It should be noted that Khatami and Rafsanjani, who stayed behind the scenes of the protest movement, have not managed to recruit the support of any senior ayatollah against Khamenei. Hashemi Rafsanjani, who is the second most powerful figure in the regime and heads two of its most important bodies (the Experts Assembly and Expediency Council), has never purported to lead a movement presenting an alternative to the regime. Despite his blatant disagreements with the Supreme Leader, he hasn't openly challenged the latter's decision to accept the election results, though, according to reports, he has sought to recruit senior ayatollahs to join his camp within the regime. 3. Absence of International Support The policy of the West during this crisis has been one of non-intervention in the events in Iran. Conclusion: The events in Iran following the elections were a public outburst of rage that encompassed many sectors of Iranian civil society. This outburst was made possible by the emergence of a comprehensive national common denominator, namely anger over the rigged elections. The protestors sought a leadership, but did not find one. The regime's power and brutal suppression of the protests, the absence of a religious leadership, and the silence of the world meant that the protest movement could not maintain its momentum, and started to crumble after two weeks. However, it is safe to assume that another, more effective, protest movement will arise when the necessary "ingredients" are present, namely – a public of protestors, a compelling ideological agenda presenting an alternative to the regime, a religious leadership that will head the movement and will be willing to pay the price, and international support. It can also be assumed that the present Iranian protest movement is likely to impact the Sunni Arab societies in the countries neighboring Iran, which are also no strangers to election fraud.  Now that the regime has managed to quell the protests, its various elite groups are busy trying to mediate between its two competing streams, both of which are conservative and accept Khamenei's authority.(2) The desire for reconciliation is clearly evident in Rafsanjani's recent public statement – his first in the last two weeks – in which he declared his loyalty to Khamenei (who has his "unending affection"), and adopted the line of Khamenei and Ahmadinejad that foreign elements were behind the protest movement.(3) *A. Savyon is Director of the Iranian Media Project. Endnotes: (1) The leaders' position was expressed, for example, by Mousavi's supporter Majlis Member Ghodratollah Alikhani, who cried out emotionally during a recent Majlis session, "We are all sons of the Revolution!" http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=DFiv361ycpQ .   (2) See MEMRI Inquiry and Analysis No. 522, "Elections in Iran – Part II," June 9, 2009, http://www.memri.org/bin/articles.cgi?Page=countries&Area=iran&ID=IA52209.  Since Khamenei stressed, in his June 19, 2009 Friday sermon, the importance of all the leaders to the regime,  the regime's various elites and mechanisms have been working to appease the disgruntled presidential candidates and offer a solution to the crisis. Among the figures undertaking this effort are Ayatollahs from Qom, such as Mousavi Ardabili, Sobhani and Javadi-Amoli, as well as Majlis Speaker Larijani who has established his own committee for resolving the conflict, members of the Guardians Council and others. On Khamenei's June 19 sermon, see MEMRI Special Dispatch No. 2413, "Iran's Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei in a Tehran Friday Sermon: In Every Election There Are Winners and There Are Losers," June 21, 2009,http://www.memri.org/bin/articles.cgi?Page=countries&Area=iran&ID=SP241309. (3) ILNA (Iran), June 28, 2009, Mehr (Iran), June 27, 2009.

Quick! Find This Infidel "Twitter", and Kill Him!"

Revolution in Iran

At first I thought it was a joke. That there could be free elections in "The Islamic Republic of Iran". Then I learned that, indeed, I was right, to a point. The elections held for the Presidency of Iran last Friday in which M. Ahmedinejad allegedly won a 'landslide' were not free. Indeed, even the so-called reform candidates had to be formally approved by the actual power in Iran, the "Guardian Council" and had to meet stringent ideologic requirements before their names could even be put on the ballot.

That aside, the raging protests and the brutality exhibited by "The Islamic Republic of Iran" shows that even they can't, in the name of Allah, pull the wool over every Iranian's eyes. I know that the Persian empire was at one point one of the largest in the world. The Persian culture is one of the most celebrated in the history of humanity. It makes me wonder, then, how long the people of Iran will stand for the theocracy that they got back in 1979, a theocracy that has ruined the Iranian economy, made Iran a paraiah state in the West, and otherwise meddlesome in the politics in the explosive Middle East.

We can trace the 1979 revolution to American meddling. It was the US which helped stage a coup d'etat in 1953 to place the friendly, malleable Shah back in power. It gave the US, for a very long time, a valuable outpost in the region. So the Iranian students who kidnapped the American hostages and held them until the day that Ronald Reagan took office are now the Ahmedinejads of the world. But their cause - continuous rants against the "Great Satan", the US, and the "Little Satan", Israel, are not enough to keep a people clothed, housed, fed, employed and happy. What does the existing government of Iran offer its own people?

What Ayatollah Khomenei and M. Ahmedinejad cannot admit publicly is that their state is in ruin and the people know it. So much so that the Iranians have to resort to violence to quell the righteous outrage that is currently boiling over there. They know when they've been had, when they' ve been sold a bill of goods for which there is no substance. I cannot help but think that at this point, Khameini and Ahmedinejad are, like their brothers in Hamas, holding on to power for its own sake, not necessarily for the sake of the welfare and prosperity of the people they supposedly govern.

The problem for the Guardian Council, the Iranian Revolutionary Guard, Ahmedinejad and the rest of the current power elite is how to put the toothpaste back into the tube. It can't be done. Let us hope that the actions of so many, and those seven that (so far) have been killed in the name of democracy (albeit flawed, but democracy nonetheless) will not have been in vain. Let us hope that the people of Iran continue to show the rest of the world that power in Iran does truly rest ultimately with the people, not with Ayatollahs and the like who claim a monopoly on truth and justice. There's a revolution brewing in Iran. The question will be who will stand with the Iranian people.